Breaking — Geopolitics & Energy

Iran Conflict Escalates: Oil Tops $85, Iraq Cuts Output, Gas Prices Surge Toward $4

On the fourth day of the US-Israel war with Iran, a drone struck the US consulate in Dubai, Israel sent troops into Lebanon, and the State Department scrambled to evacuate Americans from the Middle East. Brent crude topped $85 a barrel for the first time since 2024, and diesel futures had their biggest one-day jump since the first Gulf War.

A day after Iran cut off the Strait of Hormuz — responsible for transporting one-fifth of the world's petroleum — Iraq began shutting down domestic oil production. As OPEC's second-largest producer, Iraq is poised to cease shipment of ~3 million barrels per day while the waterway remains closed. US officials said attacks on Iran will persist for weeks, and President Trump expects energy costs to increase until the fighting ends.

The average cost of a gallon of gas hit $3.11 Tuesday, up 11 cents from Monday and 23 cents from a month ago, per AAA. Analysts believe oil prices could reach $100 per barrel, which could push gas to $4 per gallon. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US is looking at ways to mitigate energy costs, but the Strategic Petroleum Reserve's 415 million barrels won't be tapped right away.

President Trump announced naval escorts and political risk insurance for companies transporting oil through the Strait of Hormuz, which calmed markets somewhat. Stocks were initially headed for a meltdown but pared losses — ending with a sizable decline instead of a catastrophic one. Read the latest Iran updates.

Key Developments
  • Drone strikes US consulate in Dubai; Israel sends troops into Lebanon
  • Iraq shuts down ~3M barrels/day as Strait of Hormuz blockade continues
  • US gas price hits $3.11/gal — analysts warn of $4/gal if oil hits $100/barrel
  • Trump offers naval escorts for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz
  • Brent crude tops $85/barrel; diesel futures biggest single-day jump since Gulf War I
  • Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei named by Assembly of Experts
  • Qatar Airways suspends flights; 100+ Iranian naval personnel missing after warship sinks
  • US banks on high alert for cyberattacks as conflict expands
Morning Brew 1% Better
Iran — Leadership

Iran Names New Supreme Leader: Mojtaba Khamenei Rises as Father's Successor

Iran's Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as the country's next Supreme Leader following his father's death in an Israeli strike. The IRGC reportedly pressured the assembly to appoint a successor quickly — a potential strategic move that Israel had anticipated. 1% Better

AI — OpenAI

OpenAI Walks Back Pentagon Deal After Protests, Cancellations, and Employee Backlash

Sam Altman posted significant revisions to OpenAI's Pentagon contract amid employee pushback, user cancellations, and a surge of sign-ups to Anthropic. Altman called the deal "rushed" and said it looked "opportunistic and sloppy." OAI clarified it won't deploy to NSA or other DoD intelligence agencies "for now." Altman said he'd "rather go to jail" than follow an unconstitutional order. Morning Brew Rundown AI

AI — Models

GPT-5.3 Instant Fixes ChatGPT's "Cringe" Problem — But Uninstalls Still Up 295%

OpenAI released GPT-5.3 Instant, overhauling its default model to dial back unnecessary refusals and its notorious "cringe" tone. The update also claims a 25%+ reduction in hallucinations on web search. OAI teased that "5.4 sooner than you Think" is coming. Despite the upgrade, ChatGPT uninstalls surged 295% after the Pentagon drama. Rundown AI

Markets — Tuesday Close

Nasdaq
22,516.69
-1.02%
S&P 500
6,816.63
-0.94%
Dow Jones
48,501.27
-0.83%
10-Year Treasury
4.056%
+1.0 bps
Bitcoin
$68,041
-1.66%
Pinterest
$19.10
+9.27%
Morning Brew
Rundown AI

Create Killer Thumbnails with This Midjourney Technique

Learn a quick prompting and editing system to make thumbnails that stand out without looking like AI slop — useful for YouTube channels, blogs, or social feeds. Good thumbnails pay dividends.

Step-by-Step

  1. Open Claude or any chat agent. Tell it your video topic and ask it to generate four Midjourney prompts with this structure: [Person + Expression] + [Action/Prop] + [Setting] + [Lighting] + [Composition with negative space] --ar 16:9
  2. Paste each prompt into the Midjourney web app. When you see a generation you like, click on it and try selecting vary > subtle or vary > strong until you get the perfect variation. Save the image to your desktop.
  3. Key step — the design: Simplicity is essential. Add 1–5 words of big, click-worthy text in Canva. Bring opacity down 5% and use a blocky font. Go with white or yellow text with an optional black outline.

Pro tip: If you can't get the text to fit right on your image, tell Claude to come up with a new prompt that creates empty space for you.

Community AI Workflow — Preparing for Cross-Examination with AI

From reader Lenore B. in New Zealand: "I had to prepare for a hearing where I would be cross-examined. I uploaded the documents (with confidential details removed) into an AI project and instructed it to be demanding and skeptical. I also asked it to review each session and identify what I was doing well.

It stopped unproductive rumination, sharpened my reasoning, and gave me structured rehearsal. I walked into the hearing calm, clear, and confident."

Workflow: Upload relevant documents to an AI project → instruct it to simulate a skeptical cross-examiner → after each session, ask the AI to identify what you did well and where to improve → repeat until confident.

Business

Target Abandons "Everything Store" Strategy — Bets on Busy Families and Baby Care Morning Brew

New Target CEO Michael Fiddelke told investors the retail chain will refocus on the needs of "busy families" — more baby care and groceries, less of being an everything store. The pivot comes after Target's fourth straight quarter of declining store and online traffic.

Target's latest earnings (quarter ending Jan. 31) told a mixed story: revenue came in even lower than Wall Street's already low expectations, but earnings beat estimates. Same-day deliveries — competing with Walmart and Amazon — grew more than 30%. The company plans to invest an additional $1 billion in its supply chain, technology, and stores. Target projects 2% net sales growth for this fiscal year, and expects to exit its slump soon. Some customers told CNBC that store inventory feels lacking and they're unhappy with Target's DEI rollbacks.

Politics

Texas Senate Shakeup: Talarico Wins Democratic Primary, Cornyn-Paxton Head to Runoff Morning Brew 1% Better

State Rep. James Talarico, a 36-year-old Presbyterian seminarian, defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett to become the Democratic nominee for US Senate in November's midterms. No Democrat has won a Texas statewide race in over 30 years.

On the Republican side, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advance to a May 26 runoff after neither eclipsed 50% of the vote. Rep. Wesley Hunt finished third and conceded. All three Republicans had campaigned on ties to President Trump, who declined to endorse. A Trump endorsement in the Cornyn-Paxton runoff is widely expected to be decisive. Crockett's campaign announced plans to sue over reported voting irregularities in Dallas. In North Carolina, Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley won their respective Senate primaries.

Infrastructure

Mexico's $7.5 Billion "Dry Canal" Could Rival the Panama Canal by June 1% Better

Mexico is nearing completion of the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, a $7.5 billion rail-and-port megaproject connecting the Pacific and Gulf coasts across 300 kilometers of southern Mexico. Final construction is expected by June 2026.

The corridor is designed to move containers coast-to-coast in under six hours, with projected capacity of 1.4 million containers annually. Planners estimate it could divert up to 5% of typical Panama Canal traffic during drought-related slowdowns. The project includes industrial parks, free-trade zones, and an estimated 3,200 jobs. The Panama Canal Authority acknowledged monitoring the project while expressing confidence in its own 180-route, 170-country network. See video overview.

AI — Google

Google's Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite: Fastest, Cheapest AI Model at 1/4 the Cost of Anthropic's Haiku Rundown AI

Google rolled out Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, its fastest entry in the Gemini 3 lineup — providing near-instantaneous responses and upgraded intelligence while undercutting rivals on price.

Flash-Lite rounds out Google's tiered Gemini 3 release weeks after the Pro model, giving a budget option for high-volume work that doesn't need a flagship. The model scored a 12-point jump on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index over its predecessor — beating even larger prior-gen Gemini models on reasoning. Flash-Lite costs 1/4 of Anthropic's Haiku and 1/8th of Gemini 3.1 Pro, though output pricing triples from the 2.5 version it replaces. Cheap, fast models are becoming the real battleground in AI, and Flash-Lite's benchmarks suggest Google isn't sacrificing much intelligence to get there.

Policy & Law

DOJ Reverses Course — Revives Defense of Trump's Executive Orders Targeting Law Firms Morning Brew

A day after the Justice Department abandoned its defense of Trump's executive orders targeting law firms that opposed him, it reversed course — telling an appeals court it wants to continue defending the orders.

The orders targeted four firms — Jenner & Block, WilmerHale, Perkins Coie, and Susman Godfrey — stripping their government contracts and security clearances. While nine other firms struck deals with the White House to avoid being targeted, these four mounted legal challenges. Several lower court judges have already ruled Trump's executive orders are unconstitutional. The DOJ's reversal signals the administration intends to press on with the appeals rather than let the lower court rulings stand.

Education — AI

Anthropic Academy Launches: 13 Free AI Courses With Certificates — Bootcamps Once Charged $2,000 1% Better

Anthropic just made professional AI education free with the launch of Anthropic Academy, a 13-course platform covering practical AI skills for developers, business teams, and beginners alike.

Featured courses include Claude 101, Claude Code in Action, Model Context Protocol, API Development, and AI Fluency. Certificates are included at no cost, where bootcamps once charged up to $2,000 for similar content. Courses focus on real projects and hands-on practice. The launch comes as Anthropic has seen a surge in new user sign-ups following OpenAI's Pentagon controversy.

World News

US Banks on High Alert for Cyberattacks as Iran War Escalates 1% Better

US financial institutions have raised their threat postures as the Iran conflict enters its fourth day. Iran has a history of targeting financial infrastructure with cyberattacks, and with oil markets already rattled, a successful strike on banking systems could compound economic instability.

Howard Lutnick Agrees to Testify About Epstein Ties Before House Oversight Morning Brew

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, a former neighbor and acquaintance of Jeffrey Epstein, said he would testify before the House Oversight Committee about his ties to the disgraced financier.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem Faces Bipartisan Criticism at Senate Hearing Morning Brew

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Schumer Bill Targets Meatpacking Breakup Amid Record Beef Prices 1% Better

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Technology & AI

Alibaba's Qwen Team Hit by Wave of Departures — Echoing OpenAI's 2023 Mutiny Rundown AI

Staffers on Alibaba's Qwen AI team posted a coordinated "Qwen is nothing without its people" message — echoing OpenAI's 2023 employee mutiny against Sam Altman. The coordinated action suggests deeper tensions within one of China's leading AI research groups.

Anthropic Had Submitted $100M Pentagon Drone Swarm Proposal Before Being Barred From DoD Rundown AI

Anthropic submitted a proposal for a $100M Pentagon drone swarm challenge before being barred from DoD work — with rival firms ultimately selected. The revelation adds complexity to the narrative of Anthropic as a principled refuser of military contracts.

xAI Releases Grok 4.20 Beta 2 With Better Instruction Following and Fewer Hallucinations Rundown AI

xAI released a "Beta 2" version of Grok 4.20, with improvements including better instruction following, reduced hallucinations, and other undisclosed upgrades — keeping pace with ongoing updates from OpenAI and Anthropic.

A Game of Thrones Movie Is in Development — Westeros Refuses to Let Go Morning Brew

A Game of Thrones movie is officially in development. No further details have been released, but the announcement suggests HBO is determined to revive the franchise long after its controversial series finale.

Life & Culture

Balloon Rescue: 2 Saved From Hot Air Balloon Stuck on Communications Tower 900 Feet Up 1% Better

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Scrubs Revival Debuts on ABC — Original Cast Returns After 16 Years 1% Better

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UK Unemployment Projected to Hit 1.93 Million as AI and Tax Hikes Loom 1% Better

UK unemployment is projected to rise to 1.93 million — a potential jobless rate of 6.8% — as analysts cite AI adoption and recent government tax increases as compounding factors squeezing the UK labor market heading into spring.